The Oscars I Care About

So, Oscar nominations have been released, and in terms of the awards I care about, there were 21 additions to my lists. Three of those (The Shape of Water, Logan, and Get Out) I have already seen. The complete lists, again, for those seven categories that matter to me here, are as follows:

Best Picture
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Director
Christopher Nolan: Dunkirk
Jordan Peele: Get Out
Greta Gerwig: Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson: Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro: The Shape of Water

Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet: Call Me by Your Name
Gary Oldman: Darkest Hour
Daniel Kaluuya: Get Out
Daniel Day-Lewis: Phantom Thread
Denzel Washington: Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Best Actress
Margot Robbie: I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan: Lady Bird
Meryl Streep: The Post
Sally Hawkins: The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound

Best Original Screenplay
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Animated Feature
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

So, here are a few things worth mentioning.

First, Oscars are far less white this than in a few previous incarnations, although Best Actress is entirely white this year. I'm a little surprised in terms of genre to see Daniel Kaluuya nominated (pleasantly surprised, mind you--I've said for years that Oscar is unfairly prejudiced against horror). In fact, the number of nominations for both Get Out and The Shape of Water is nice to see, since both are of genres that Oscar typically shuns.

Speaking of that, I'm a little disappointed but not surprised at the lack of nominations for Wonder Woman. I had hopes for it, but superhero movies are routinely ignored--the fact that Heath Ledger was nominated let alone won for a performance in a superhero movie is a huge anomaly. Evidence for this is the fact that Logan earned a nomination for just its screenplay and Patrick Stewart was ignored for what is probably the greatest performance of his career. Wonder Woman's lack of nominations speaks more about the genre than it does about a woman-fronted movie or a major film directed by a woman.

To that point, it's nice to see Greta Gerwig nominated for Best Director. But herein lies a serious problem for the Academy. With this award, there is no win for them. I haven't seen Lady Bird (I'm very much looking forward to it), so I can't say if she deserves to win or even deserved a nomination at this point. I can say that my heart will always be with Guillermo del Toro here, but that's beside the point. If Gerwig wins, there will be a contingent of people who will say that she only won because of everything that happened in 2017 and that she didn't really earn it--she won because she was a woman in the right place. If she doesn't win, there will be a contingent of people who say that her nomination was the Academy providing lip service to the #metoo movement. They're damned if they do and damned if they don't--and this would have been a good case for nominating Patty Jenkins as well. A second woman on the list would alleviate this problem, and it's incredibly easy to make a case for Jenkins here despite genre issues.

There is a point in the Academy's favor, though. Four of the five Best Actress nominees are in films that were also nominated for Best Picture. That may not sound like a big deal, but it could well be the start of an important trend. Last year, only one nominee (Emma Stone for La La Land) was nominated for a performance in a Best Picture nominee, while four of the five Best Actor nominations were. This is not uncommon. I'll go back a few years to show you what I mean. In each of the following, I'm listing the number of nominated performances that were in films nominated for Best Picture.

2016 Oscars: 4 actors, 1 actress
2015 Oscars: 2 actors, 2 actresses
2014 Oscars: 4 actors, 1 actress
2013 Oscars: 5 actors, 3 actresses
2012 Oscars: 3 actors, 4 actresses (an anomaly!)
2011 Oscars: 3 actors, 1 actress
2010 Oscars: 4 actors, 3 actresses
2009 Oscars: 2 actors, 3 actresses (another anomaly!)

Yes, there are a couple of anomalous years here, but on average, 3.375 Best Actor performances are from films also considered important enough and good enough to be considered for Best Picture compared with an average of 2.25 for Best Actress performances. This is significant--it's under half for women and well over half for men. That list above only goes back to years where the Best Picture category has been expanded--it's true as we continue back in history. From 2000-2008, 42.22% (19 of 45) of Best Actor nominations are in Best Picture nominations with no common nominations in 2006. A mere 22.22% (10 of 45) of Best Actress nominations are in Best Picture nominated films, with no common nominations in 2003 and 2005. In seven of those nine years, two or more Best Actors nominations qualify, something true of only three years for Best Actress nominations. Best Actresses have more Best Picture-related nominations in only two of these years (2000 and 2006), while Best Actors have more Best Picture related nominations in five of those years (2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, and 2008).

And that trend continues the further back we go. In fact, it gets worse. Almost half (24 of 50) Best Actor nominations in the '90s are from Best Picture nominations while just over a quarter (13 of 50) Best Actress nominations are. Best Actors have six years where these nominations outnumber those of Best Actresses, and the other four years are tied. There are no films in common for Best Picture and Best Actress in 1990 and 1994, and that's never true for actors. This holds true in the '80s (26 Best Actor nominations vs. 19 Best Actress) and the '70s (24 to 20).

So what does all of this mean? It means that traditionally, the Academy undervalues actresses. Those performances most worthy of note from actresses tend to happen (in the eyes of the Academy) in films that are not important enough or good enough to be considered for Best Picture. It's the old idea that pictures about women and women's issues attract women while pictures about men and men's issues attract everyone. Perhaps this is changing, but we've had years like this in the past. It's something to watch, and we can hope it's the beginning of a trend.

As always, I'd love any comments. Please, let me know what you think and what you think got snubbed.